Of course, we must first determine which defenses will be less motivated to ride their starters and go full throttle. The Buccaneers (@ Falcons in Week 18) and Giants (@ Eagles) are basically locked in place. Tampa Bay remains a solid play against rookie Desmond Ridder and an underwhelming Atlanta offense, and New York was going to be a fade against Philly no matter the circumstances. 

You already know which defenses sit with the Bucs among the cream of the crop: Despite a disappointing performance last week, the 49ers (vs. Cardinals) rank No. 1 in yards and points allowed, the Cowboys (@ Commanders) have a solid secondary and a pass-rush led by Micah Parsons, and the Bills (vs. Patriots) and Eagles (vs. Giants) both have strong all-around units with good matchups. Considering the G-men can’t move up from a wild card spot, Philly should destroy them at home. 

WEEK 18 FANTASY RANKINGS:QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | Kickers

Rounding out the top 10, look for the Colts (vs. Texans) to beat up on Houston’s interception-prone offense, D-POY candidate Chris Jones and the Chiefs (@ Raiders) to sack-lunch Jarrett Stidham, and the Jaguars (vs. Titans) to capitalize against inexperienced QB Josh Dobbs. The Panthers (@ Saints) and Browns (@ Steelers) both seem start-worthy, as well, thanks in large part to the struggles of veteran Andy Dalton and rookie Kenny Pickett. Carolina has five sacks and two takeaways over the past two weeks, and Cleveland registered three sacks and three interceptions in Week 17 against Washington. 

Don’t have a top-10 option? Grab a squad playing with purpose matching up against a down-and-out offense. The Seahawks (vs. Rams) average 2.5 sacks per game and now face an L.A. line that has surrendered the third-most sacks in the NFL (3.4 per game). The Vikings (@ Bears) still have a shot at the No. 2 seed and face a Bears squad going nowhere fast and starting Nathan Peterman. The Chargers (@ Broncos) could still play for seeding and face a Denver squad that has taken the most sacks and thrown the second-most interceptions this season. 

Beyond that territory, you should be looking for effort and upside. The Dolphins (vs. Jets) usually aren’t a great play, but they’ll be as motivated as ever against a New York squad that looked stagnant against Seattle last week. The Saints (vs. Panthers) have just pride at stake, but they played spoiler with a 20-10 win over NFC-leading Philly last week and could cause problems for Sam Darnold, giving them a fairly high ceiling. Ditto for the Jets against Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins. Even the Texans (@ Colts) against Sam Ehlinger yield more upside than some of the usually stout defenses with poor matchups. 

We get it — you don’t want to start New Orleans or Houston when you’ve been riding the Patriots (@ Bills) or Ravens (@ Bengals) all season, but you don’t want any part of a D/ST going against a high-powered offense that’s in a must-win situation. For this reason, we’re also shying away from the Packers (vs. Lions), Commanders (vs. Cowboys), and Broncos (vs. Chargers). Now is not the time to play with fire.

Good luck, and Happy New Year! We’ll be updating our fantasy defense rankings throughout the week, so check back for the latest analysis and player movement.

Week 18 fantasy defense rankings

Rank    Team 1    San Francisco 49ers vs. Cardinals 2    Dallas Cowboys @ Commanders 3    Buffalo Bills vs. Patriots 4    Philadelphia Eagles vs. Giants 5    Indianapolis Colts vs. Texans 6    Minnesota Vikings @ Bears 7    Kansas City Chiefs @ Raiders 8    Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Titans 9    Carolina Panthers @ Saints 10    Cleveland Browns @ Steelers 11    Seattle Seahawks vs. Rams 12    Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Falcons 13    New York Jets @ Dolphins 14    Los Angeles Chargers @ Broncos 15    Miami Dolphins vs. Jets 16    New Orleans Saints vs. Panthers 17    Houston Texans @ Colts 18    Atlanta Falcons vs. Buccaneers 19    New England Patriots @ Bills 20    Green Bay Packers vs. Lions 21    Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Browns 22    Baltimore Ravens @ Bengals 23    Washington Commanders vs. Cowboys 24    Detroit Lions @ Packers 25    Cincinnati Bengals vs. Ravens 26    Arizona Cardinals @ 49ers 27    New York Giants @ Eagles 28    Denver Broncos vs. Chargers 29    Tennessee Titans @ Jaguars 30    Los Angeles Rams @ Seahawks 31    Chicago Bears vs. Vikings 32    Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chiefs